TMN, Summer 2008: Earned value forecast accuracy and activity criticality

In this article, published in 2008 in The Measurable News, the forecasting accuracy of three time predictors using the earned value and earned schedule methodology is compared and validated. It is a follow-up article of “TMN, Winter 2007: Measuring the accuracy of earned value/earned schedule forecasting predictors” and makes a distinction between critical and non-critical activities, resulting in four simulation scenarios. The main reason why a distinction between critical and non-critical activities is made is to test the performance of earned value based time predictors when used on high levels in the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). Since the use of these predictors on high WBS levels can potentially mask potential problems and lead to wrong forecasts, this study shows how accurate they perform, despite this error. 
More information on this topic can be found in other articles on project control, such as articles on time forecasting (See ”Earned Value Management: Forecasting time”) as well as on evaluating the forecasting accuracy of these time predictors (See ”Predicting project performance: Evaluating the forecasting accuracy”). 
?Figure 1. The Measurable News, Summer 2008 (click on this picture to download)

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