TMN, Issue 1, 2009: Forecasting a project’s duration under various topological structures

In this article, published in 2009 in The Measurable News, the forecasting accuracy of three time predictors using the earned value and earned schedule methodology is along the topology of the project network. It is a follow-up of the “TMN, Winter 2007: Measuring the accuracy of earned value/earned schedule forecasting predictors” and “TMN, Summer 2008: Earned value forecast accuracy and activity criticality” articles. The article shows that the topological structure of a project network, measured as the closeness of a project network to a serial or parallel network, clearly determines the forecast accuracy of  these earned value based metrics to predict a project’s duration. The article concludes that a more serial network that contains, on average, more critical activities, results in a better forecast accuracy compared to more parallel networks.

 

More information on this topic can be found in other articles on project control, such as articles on time forecasting (See ”Earned Value Management: Forecasting time”) as well as on evaluating the forecasting accuracy of these time predictors (See ”Predicting project performance: Evaluating the forecasting accuracy”).